红宝石官方网站hbs备用主题：Reformers in the Making: Early Careers, Political Ideology, and Policy Innovation in China

主讲嘉宾：刘晨冉 中国人民大学经济学院讲师

红宝石官方网站hbs备用时间：2026年5月22日周五18:40-20:40

红宝石官方网站hbs备用地点：hbs02红宝石线路沙河校区学院楼11号楼308会议室

嘉宾简介：刘晨冉，中国人民大学经济学院讲师，博士毕业于北京大学，曾任清华大学“水木学者”博士后研究员。主要研究领域为公共经济学和发展经济学，研究成果发表于Journal of Public Economics、《管理世界》、《金融研究》等国内外学术期刊，曾获全国优秀财政理论研究成果二等奖，主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（C类）等课题多项。

内容摘要：Does the ideology of local officials shape policy outcomes, and where does that ideology come from? We construct a speech-based measure of reform ideology for more than 2,000 Chinese prefecture-city leaders between 2000 and 2022, using over 1.2 million local newspaper articles. Individual fixed effects explain 34-46 percent of the variation, indicating persistent individual disposition. We trace this disposition to early-career exposure to the 1980 Special Economic Zones: officials whose first job was near a Special Economic Zone after 1980 display substantially more reform-oriented speech decades later. Using 1.15 million city-level policy documents, we show that reform-minded officials issue less top-down and more innovative policies, which predict higher patenting, venture-capital inflows, and long-run growth.