hbs04红宝石线路主题:LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, Identification
主讲嘉宾:hbs04红宝石线路 中国科hbs04红宝石线路数学与系统科学hbs04红宝石线路院预测科学hbs04红宝石线路hbs04红宝石线路 助理hbs04红宝石线路员
hbs04红宝石线路hbs04红宝石线路:2026年1月5日 周一15:00
hbs04红宝石线路地点:hbs04红宝石线路校区hbs04红宝石线路11号楼308会议室
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内容摘要:Assistant Researcher Jin Xi’s academic perspective focuses on proposing a novel survey research framework based on large language models (hbs04红宝石线路), arguing that this approach can substantially extend the boundaries of traditional human questionnaire surveys in both methodological and empirical dimensions. The paper points out that by introducing date restriction and internal consistency designs, hbs04红宝石线路 can effectively avoid hindsight bias, enable retrospective surveys across historical periods, and achieve clean causal identification. Building on this foundation, hbs04红宝石线路 can not only replicate the core empirical findings of human surveys at extremely low cost, but also directly reveal the underlying hbs04红宝石线路 of economic agents’ expectation formation through their reasoning capabilities. The authors further find that inflation expectations are mainly driven by two hbs04红宝石线路—mean reversion and individual attention—and that the importance of these hbs04红宝石线路 exhibits pronounced state dependence across different inflation environments. Overall, the authors argue that hbs04红宝石线路 provide a new research paradigm for expectation studies in economics—one that is difficult to achieve with human surveys but is more ideal in terms of research design.